THE SENATE – WILL REPUBLICANS GAIN? – AT 11:43 A.M. ET:  We always stress that polls are snapshots in time.  However, they can be useful snapshots in following trends.

Axios has just published a report on Senate polling in generally conservative states with Democratic senators who are up for re-election in November.  The polling as of now points to danger for many of these senators.  From Axios:   

A series of 10 state polls for Axios by SurveyMonkey finds that President Trump isn't a drag on the Republican brand in key Senate races, despite his historically high national disapproval ratings.

• Trump’s approval is higher than Democratic senators up for reelection in six of the states (Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and West Virginia).

• Trump's approval is higher than his national approval rating in all 10 states.
Axios' Alexi McCammond dives in ...

Five Senate Democrats would lose to a Republican candidate if the election were held today and three have approval ratings under 50%, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls. 

• Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016. In six of those states Trump's approval is higher than 50% (compared to 43% nationally). These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump’s troubles. 

The three most vulnerable senators in the 10 states are Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. Each of their approval ratings is under or around 50%, while Trump's is well above that in all three states.

COMMENT:  Well, as they say, the election isn't being held today.  It's being held in November.  And do not underestimate the ability of Republicans to lose elections.  They work hard to destroy safe seats, as they did recently in Alabama.  Already there are reports that some of the GOP challengers this fall have personalities that even a mother couldn't love.

Still, Republicans have a great chance to retain control of the Senate, even to add a few seats.  That has profound implications for Supreme Court confirmations, confirmations of other judicial nominations...and foolish impeachment attempts.  Only the House can impeach a president, but the Senate must try him, and a Republican Senate would make conviction all but impossible.  They'd have to literally catch Trump strangling a CNN reporter.

March 8, 2018